Cubs grab early lead, top Pirates
Baseball Betting Lines
07/01/2009 -
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derrek Lee belted a two-run home run and
Randy Wells tossed seven innings of one-run ball to lead the Chicago Cubs past
the Pittsburgh Pirates, 4-1, in the rubber match of a three-game set at PNC
Park.
Wells (3-3) gave up six hits and fanned four batters to collect his
third straight victory. Kevin Gregg retired the side in the ninth to pick up
his 14th save of the year.
Kosuke Fukudome hit a solo homer and doubled for the Cubs, who had lost seven
of nine coming into the tilt. Geovany Soto went 2-for-4 with a triple and an
RBI single.
Virgil Vasquez (1-1) went six frames, allowing three runs on seven hits with
three walks and two strikeouts to take the loss. Vasquez got his first major-
league victory against the Royals last Friday. He allowed two runs and four
hits in six innings with two walks and seven strikeouts in that game.
Brandon Moss knocked in the lone run for the Pirates with a single. Andrew
McCutchen and Jason Jaramillo each had two hits for Pittsburgh, which has won
five of its last eight games despite the loss.
The Cubs used a two-run homer from Lee in the top of the first inning
to take the early edge. Sam Fuld started things with his first-career MLB hit
-- a double to right. Fuld crossed the plate two batters later when Lee drove
a Vasquez offering over the wall in center.
Pittsburgh plated a run in the bottom half of the frame. McCutchen doubled and
Adam LaRoche walked to put runners on the corners with two outs. Moss then
knocked in McCutchen with a single to center.
Chicago put men on first and third with one out in the top of the fifth, but
Lee grounded into a double play. In the home half of the inning, Jack Wilson
was thrown out at the plate after Freddy Sanchez singled to left.
Fukudome smacked a two-out, home run over the wall in right field in the sixth
to extend the Cubs' margin to 3-1.
Soto added an RBI single in the eighth.
Carlos Marmol and Gregg tossed a scoreless eighth and ninth, respectively, to
secure the victory.
Game Notes
The Cubs finished a 10-game road trip with a 3-7 mark...Chicago manager Lou
Piniella was ejected by first base umpire Chad Fairchild in the sixth inning
for arguing a call at first base...The Cubs start an 11-game homestand with a
four-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday...Pittsburgh hosts a
make-up game against the New York Mets on Thursday before beginning a nine-
game road swing.
<< Prado, Braves rough up Hamels, Phillies
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Prado was at it again, scoring three
runs and driving in two more runs after a four-RBI evening on Tuesday, as
Atlanta poured it on Philadelphia, 11-1, at Turner Field.
Gregor Blanco scored tw
<< Castro, Contreras carry ChiSox over Cleveland
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ramon Castro hit a go-ahead three-run homer
in a four-run sixth inning, and Jose Contreras pitched eight strong frames as
the Chicago White Sox completed a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Indians
with a
<< A-Rod's homer pushes Yankees past M's, to seventh straight win
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez continued his recent power surge,
belting the go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth inning that lifted the New
York Yankees to their seventh straight victory, 4-2, over the Seattle
Mariner
<< Canadiens sign Gionta, Gill
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens have signed forward
Brian Gionta to a five-year contract and defenseman Hal Gill to a two-year
deal, the team announced Wednesday.
Financial terms of both deals were not release
<< Flames sign Sjostrom
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames signed forward Fredrik
Sjostrom, the club announced on Wednesday. Terms of the deal were not
disclosed.
Sjostrom, who was an original first round pick (11th overall) of the P
Butler/Georgetown, Indiana/Pittsburgh comprise Jimmy V Classic >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Butler will face Georgetown, and Indiana will
take on Pittsburgh in the matchups for this year's Jimmy V Classic, to be held
at Madison Square Garden on December 8.
This will be the debut for Georgetown and
Cueto, Reds blank D'Backs >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnny Cueto tossed six shutout innings and
the Reds bullpen finished the two-hitter from there, as Cincinnati blanked
Arizona, 1-0, in the second of three games with the Diamondbacks.
Cueto (8-4) surr
Ottawa brings back Neil >>
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators announced on Wednesday that
they have re-signed right-winger Chris Neil to a four-year contract worth a
reported $8 million.
The Ottawa Sun reports Neil chose to stay in Ottawa despite a
Braden, A's take series from Detroit >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas Braden threw seven strong innings, and
Jack Cust and Jason Giambi each hit a two-run homer, as the Oakland Athletics
defeated Detroit, 5-1, in the rubber match of a three-game series.
Braden (6-7) al
Report: Clippers send Randolph to Memphis for Richardson >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers reportedly cleared
some cap space for 2010, sending forward Zach Randolph to Memphis in exchange
for forward/guard Quentin Richardson.
Several media sources are reporting the exch
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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Pacific-10 Conference odds
Teams that should be in: Stanford
Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.
Should be in:
Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.
| Southeastern Conference odds |
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State
It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.
Work left to do:
Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.
Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.
Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.
Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile. |
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